Raids on hoarders need to be carried out with diligence

Agencies involved in commodities should use more analytics and information for better results.

It is would be interesting to note that ahead of Diwali, food safety officials and civil supplies department suddenly become active to ensure that laws are abided in the commodities sector. What is more surprising is not the way these raids are conducted but their timing. The activism of the law enforcers before Diwali in the North and Onam, Ugadi and Pongal in the South has been consistent over the years.

Undoubtedly, law enforcement raids are most effective when they involve good intelligence and planning. On the other hand, most raids are blind and executed without adequate information.

Obviously, the raids-to-prosecution ratio is pathetic as raids are conducted without proper analysis of market information. Both Union and State Governments often promise a crackdown on hoarders and black marketers to curb artificial price rise. However, most often the theatrical raids are conducted to cover institutional impotence and incompetence in the middle of the trouble (scarcity & seasonal price rise).

Sometimes, raids by the government machinery are also done to settle personal scores. For example, in 1995 a State Civil Supplies Minister in Gujarat backed by the oil traders lobby had ordered raids on the edible oil tanks of the National Dairy Development Board (NDDB) charging them with hoarding. The fact was the Minster was enraged by the fact that he was advised to check with the Union Ministry when he sought details of stocks from the prestigious institution.

In recent times sugar, pulses and onions have become the commodities of choice for the raids. Commodities whose prices are on rise and the supplies of which are getting scarce become the targets of the raids. The agencies that suspect hoarding should monitor stock movements, trade flows and the historical consumption patterns with appropriate intelligence and market information so that the impact of the raids do not create panic in the market.

Currently, the effectiveness of income tax raids are more profound in the economy due to analytics and software support that has been put in place over the last few years.

It is time that State agencies involved in commodities should use more analytics and information for better effectiveness of the raids.

In a market economy there cannot be any bigger disaster than vanishing stocks from the shelves due to fear. Intelligent raids should be the last resort to bring semblance of logic rather than creation of fear psychosis in the commodity market.

Published in The Business Line on 9 October, 2014

How to determine black marketing?

In a market-driven economy, it is difficult to determine whether the price that is being charged is black-marketing.

Recently, the Chief Minister of Bihar, Jitan Ram Manjhi, stirred up a controversy when he said that hoarding and black marketing of goods by small traders will not be treated as a crime. He may have been politically incorrect yet he was logically correct.

The hoarding and black marketing by small traders have no material impact on the demand and supply of goods in the market as the quantity of goods being hoarded by these small traders are insignificant.

Black marketing might be socially reprehensible and ethically wrong but there is nothing to prevent a businessperson from increasing the price to meet the pressing needs of the escalating cost.

In a market-driven economy, where there is no price ceiling, it is difficult to determine whether the price that is being charged is black-marketing. In the case of commodities, where there is no concept of an MRP, the concept of black marketing is even more questionable.

Blaming the small traders of hoarding and black-marketing creates more panic than to actually resolving supply side concerns. In modern commercial economy, hoarding and black marketing is a flawed logic that is often blamed for price increase. Small traders with limited financial resources can hardly make any dent on the price of a commodity or its availability.

Politicians browbeat the mythical hoarders for price rise often forgetting that the activity of hoarding needs very large and continuous supply of finance which no small trader possesses in India.

The agricultural physical market in Bihar and other States do not operate on a leveraged model and is also not a heavily financed model, unlike the trade of crude and metals in the international scenario.

In the past, it has been conclusively proven that when non-binding price ceilings are put in place to prevent price gouging in the event of natural disasters, it may actually reduce incentives for sellers to be well-stocked with goods as they will be unable to command the full market price for the commodities.

Normally, the supply and demand dictate price. However, when prices are fixed, demand outstrips supply. Thus, shortages become inevitable. As experience with rent control shows, capping prices in times of scarcity has perverse effect of reducing quantity of commodity or the service supplied.

Consumers understandably get upset when they face dramatic price increases within a short time. However, capping prices would actually lead to less being sold, as suppliers reduce the quantity that they are willing to sell in order to avoid losses. Shortages are, therefore, exacerbated.

By contrast, anyone who tries to unreasonably price the commodity will find himself with unsold supply and will be forced to lower his prices to offload it. In reality, it can be very difficult to determine the extent to which price increases are greater than “necessary” and even more difficult to determine what is black-marketing.

Published in The Business Line on 25 Sept, 2014