© Copyright 2000 - 2009 The Hindu Business Line
M.R. Subramani Benaulim (Goa) , May 18
Export figures
Prices of chickpea (kabuli chana) could continue to rule high in the global market on lack of carryover stocks. This is despite projections of supply exceeding demand during the current season (March 2006-February 2007).
India could export at least 1.2 lakh tonnes of chickpea during this season from last season's 60,000 tonnes.
Mexico is expected to double its production to 1.44 lakh tonnes of which 60,000 tonnes could be the bigger sized chana
"The prices will be firm as there is a mismatch of spot and future availability. Currently, there are no stocks in the pipeline,'' said Mr Sudhakar Tomar of Hakan Agro-Industries, UAE.
According to Mr Paul Lambert, President, CICILS, the turkey chickpea crop expected to hit the market in July will not be quoted less than $780-$790 initially. "Prices of pulses, in general, are rising. China, one of the major suppliers, has sold out its stocks,'' he said.
Domestic scenario
Currently, depending on size, chickpea is ruling between $750 and $815 a tonne. With arrivals likely to get over soon and kharif arrival seen around October coupled with export demand, the trade sees prices to firm up in the domestic market also.
Mr Tomar said India could end up exporting at least 1.2 lakh tonnes of chickpea during this season from last season's 60,000 tonnes. Mexico, the main supplier of this pulse in the global market, is expected to double its production to 1.44 lakh tonnes of which 60,000 tonnes could be the bigger sized chana.
He said the potential supply was 2.35 lakh tonnes in the global market against a demand of around 1.5 lakh tonnes. "Also what is happening in the global market is the spread for the bigger size chickpea compared with a smaller one is decreasing. Currently, it is just $25 a tonne from around $200,'' Mr Tomar said.
Global supply
The supply should be comfortable provided the weather plays safe and there are no geo-political tensions in West Asia.
Mexico and India could supply through July, while Turkey, Syria and Iraq could supply during August-November and Australia, the US and Canada from December to February, according to Mr Tomar.
"Market will be firm at least until Ramzaan in September, while Indian domestic production and demand will also be a factor,'' he said.
Mr Lambert said Indian crop would have an impact on chickpea. He also said the currency market, where the US dollar was witnessing depreciation, shipping and liquidity would also be factors to watch out.
Mr Shyamal Gupta, Senior Vice-President, MCX, said there was 18-24 per cent fluctuation in freight prices, while the Indian rupee had slid 2.39 per cent against the dollar.
"Interest rates, on the other hand, have gone up by 170 basis points,'' he said. He also said the per capita consumption of pulses had slid in 2005 to 12.93 kg from 12.98 kg the previous year.
